The temperature of the atmosphere near the earths surface is warmed through a natural process called the greenhouse effect. Infrared radiation reflects off the planets surface toward space but does not easily pass through the thermal blanket. Growth in industry, agriculture, and transportation since the Industrial Revolution has produced additional quantities of the natural greenhouse gases plus chlorofluorocarbons and other gases, augmenting the thermal blanket. Much of the debate surrounding global warming has centered on the accuracy of scientific predictions concerning future warming. To predict global climatic trends, climatologists accumulate large historical data and use them to create computerized models that simulate the earths climate.

The validity of these models has been a subject of controversy. Skeptics say that the climate is too complicated to be accurately modeled, and that there are too many unknowns. Some also question whether the observed climate change might simply represent normal fluctuations in global temperature. In 1992, at the united nations Conference on Environment and Development, over 150 nations signed a binding declaration on the need to reduce global warming. In 1994, however, a UN scientific advisory panel, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, concluded that reductions beyond those envisioned by the treaty would be needed to avoid global warming. Climate Change, held in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997 resulted in an international agreement to fight global warming, which called for reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases by industrialized nations. Not all industrial countries, however, immediately signed or ratified the accord. Kyoto Protocol; because the united states produces about one quarter of the worlds greenhouse gases, this was regarded as a severe blow to the effort to slow global warming. In 2002 the bush administration proposed several voluntary measures for slowing the increase in, instead of reducing, emissions of greenhouses gases. Current estimates indicate that even if successfully and completely implemented, the kyoto protocol will not provide a substantial reduction in temperature. Because of this, many critics and environmentalists view the kyoto protocol as only a first step, with subsequent measures envisaged to produce deeper cuts in the future. Participation in the Kyoto Protocol, where dark green indicates countries that have signed and ratified the treaty and yellow indicates states that have signed and hope to ratify the treaty. The treaty was negotiated in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997, opened for signature on March 16, 1998, and closed on March 15, 1999. The agreement came into force on February 16, 2005 following ratification by Russia on November 18, 2004. Notable exceptions include the United States and Australia. Other countries, like India and China, which have ratified the protocol, are not required to reduce carbon emissions under the present agreement. May 23, 2002 when Iceland ratified. UNFCCC in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. Most provisions of the Kyoto Protocol apply to developed countries, listed in Annex I to the UNFCCC.

Each ratifying Annex I country has agreed to limit emissions to the levels described in the protocol, but many countries have limits that are set above their current production. Russia currently easily meets its targets, and can sell off its credits for millions of dollars to countries that dont yet meet their targets, to Canada for instance.